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Vehicle Thefts in the City of Toronto

Tableau Dashboard

Vehicle thefts have been a hot topic in Ontario for the last several years. We've seen a noticeable rise in private vehicles being stolen right from the driveways of people's homes. Over 8,700 vehicles were stolen in the City of Toronto in 2022 alone!


This Tableau dashboard shows some insights and trends on all reported motor vehicle thefts (both residential, commercial, and other) in Toronto (Ontario, Canada). The raw data was provided by the Toronto Police Services: Public Safety Data Portal (open data portal). Combined with FSA level data provided by Statistics Canada, QGIS was used to assign vehicle Lat/Long using spatial joins to FSA boundaries.


Sources:

Toronto Police Services: Public Safety Data Portal

Statistics Canada



Key Highlights

  • Since 2014, over 50,000 vehicles have been stolen in Toronto.

  • Toronto has seen an average of a 17% increase in vehicle thefts year-over-year

  • Most thefts occur in the evening and night, with over 40% after 8pm.

  • A third of all thefts are occuring at people's homes (houses and apartments).


Toronto Police should potentially focus increased efforts in high theft neighbourhoods, during peak theft times, towards the later months in the year, and in residential areas plus streets.



Analysis

Time of day when most thefts occur



Most thefts occur between 6pm and 1am, with a peak around 10pm. Wednesdays through Friday in particular show higher theft occurrences, starting even slightly earlier on Friday evenings. This could mean that during these hours, people are either less likely to be home during the Friday evenings, or when commuters have just returned home from work when criminals use radio technology to mimic key fobs.


Residential areas in particular see majority of their thefts at night, especially between 9pm and 12am, possibly due to the fact that many cars are not home during the day. There is surprisngly a sharp rise in vehicles stolen in non-residential areas around 12pm, with the remaining majority in the evening and early part of the night.



Where most thefts occur


It is very clear from the map in the dashboard that a significant portion of vehicle thefts are concentrated in the Northwest area of the city, especially in the Rexdale and West Humber neighbourhoods (M9L, M9M, M9V, M9W). Much fewer thefts occur downtown, possibly due to fewer vehicles per dwelling and safer vehicle storage (eg. condo garages).



Understandably, in the downtown core, most thefts occur on the streets and commercial lots, but almost 30%-40% of them are in the afternoon.



What has been happening over the years?


Note: 2023 data is only upt until October


It is very evident that there has been a significant rise in vehicle thefts over the last 8 to 9 years. The average annual rate of vehicle thefts have seen a 17% increase. In 2022 alone, we saw a 47% increase in vehicle thefts.


There are more vehicle thefts towards the end of the year during the last quarter, with a peak around October and November. This has been an increasing trend, where in the earlier years we saw a more uniform distribution of thefts throughout the year.




In fact, towards the earlier years, there were more vehicle thefts in the streets than at homes. Residential thefts have seen a much higher rate of increase. By 2019, we saw the rate of thefts in residential areas surpass thefts out in the streets.



Recommendations

What can the public sector do?


From a resources standpoint from the Toronto Police, they can focus their efforts in locations like Rexdale and West Humber where thefts are high, especially around the late evening and night time. The daytime efforts should be focused in areas where theft ocurrences are high around noon, so mostly in the downtown core and large commercial areas, like Yorkdale Mall.


The public sector can also geo-target their campaign efforts with awareness and informationals in the high theft areas, from door-to-door flier pamphlets to digital geo-targeted campaigns. The content in these campaigns should be focused on awareness of theft in their neighbourhoods as well as theft prevention measures (eg. anti-theft devices).



What can insurance companies do?


As vehicle thefts are a major cost to insurance companies, it is in their best interest to protect their customers. Insurance companies should focus their efforts on targeting awareness campaigns in high theft areas. They can also encourage anti-theft devices, potentially partner with device retailers to offer discounts.



A marketing opportunity for anti-theft device companies


There is huge potential in using this data to geo-target anti-theft devices to highest theft areas. Companies like Apple and Samsung can market airtags and tracking devices to customers who are most likely to have vehicles stolen from homes. Companies that make anti-theft devices such as receiver blockers can also market to them.



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